Warmlid

Method

How we model conservatory temperature

Our conservatory temperature model is a single room heat balance stepped every 15 minutes through 17,544 hours of real weather per town. It is deliberately simple, so anyone can check it, and it is published in full here.

The room

One typical conservatory: a 14 m² floor (4.0 m by 3.5 m), a 15.4 m² roof, 13.2 m² of double glazed walls on three sides above a 0.6 m dwarf wall, and the fourth side against the house, which is held at 19°C. Volume 36 m³. The floor slab and furniture give it thermal mass of about 1.6 MJ per °C, which is why the hottest hour comes in the late afternoon, not at noon.

Inputs used for every town
Part Value Why
Polycarbonate roof U 2.4 W/m²K, lets in 50% of the sun A 25 mm multiwall roof that has aged
Glass roof U 2.8 W/m²K, lets in 62% of the sun Double glazed roof units of the 1990s and 2000s
Insulated panel roof U 0.43 W/m²K, lets in no sun 75 mm foam core between aluminium skins
Glass walls U 2.8 W/m²K, 60% of the sun, a third of the sky's sunshine reaching them Older double glazing, three sides lit in turn
Air 0.8 air changes an hour shut, 8.8 once over 25°C Doors or vents opened when it gets warm
Facing South 100%, west 92%, east 85%, north 60% of wall sun The share of the sky's sunshine reaching the walls

The sum

Every 15 minutes the room temperature moves by the heat coming in minus the heat going out, divided by its thermal mass. Heat in is sunshine (half of what the roof and walls let through stays in the room, the rest reflects or radiates back out) plus a little from the house wall. Heat out is the roof, walls, dwarf wall and air, each in proportion to its U-value, area and the difference between inside and outside.

That gives an hourly room temperature for each roof. We then count waking hours (8am to 10pm) in five bands, average each month and hour for the calendar, and add up the heat a heater would need to hold 19°C during waking hours.

The heat loss of the whole room, per degree of difference, comes out at 91 W/K with a polycarbonate roof, 97 W/K with glass and 60 W/K with panels. At 0°C outside and 19°C inside that is the 1.7 kW, 1.8 kW and 1.1 kW heaters quoted around the site.

The bands

How waking hours are sorted
Band Room temperature What it means
Too cold Under 12°C Coat on. A heater fixes it, slowly.
Chilly 12 to 17°C Jumper weather. A heater fixes it.
Comfortable 17 to 25°C Sit and read without thinking about it.
Warm 25 to 28°C Doors open, fan on, still sticky.
Too hot Over 28°C Most people leave the room.

The weather

Hourly air temperature at 2 m and shortwave sunshine on a flat surface, from Open-Meteo's historical weather archive (ERA5 reanalysis), for every hour from 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2025, at each town's coordinates. That is 17,544 hours per town and 1,824,576 hours in all. Weather data by Open-Meteo.com, licensed CC BY 4.0.

Worked example: Sheffield

Average room temperature by month and hour under each roof

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec3am9am3pm9pm
1,236
hours over 25°C
47°C
hottest hour
32°C
July, 3pm

Blue: heater weatherPale: comfortableAmber to plum: too warm

What it does not do

  • It does not know your room. Size, shading, blinds, colour of the floor and how often you open the doors all change the result.
  • It treats sunshine on the walls simply, as a share of the sky's sunshine, rather than tracking the sun round each wall.
  • It ignores wind, which cools a draughty room, and assumes the house next door stays at 19°C.
  • It does not heat or cool the room when it reports temperatures. Heating is only used for the heat cost figure.

So read the numbers as a fair comparison of roofs in your weather, not a forecast of your thermometer. If you test your own room with a thermometer, the shape of the day should look familiar: cool mornings, a late afternoon peak, a slow evening fall.

Use the data

The results for every town are free to use under CC BY 4.0 with a credit and a link to Warmlid. Download the league table as a CSV, or see it on the overheating league table page. The per town hourly averages behind the calendar are also published as small JSON files used by the Comfort Calendar.

Ready to stop guessing?

Answer a few quick questions about your conservatory and get a guide price on screen. A surveyor then measures up and fixes it in writing.